10 years seems like a very long time in tech, but it isn’t.
Tesla been talking about self driving cars for 15 years or so already. Only to lose the EV lead to BYD this year.
Apple and Samsung lead on smartphone since 2007 or so, but Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo are catching up. It took just 5 years since US sanctions Huawei on mobile chips for them to get around it.
Not saying that sanctions are not effective. Not disagreeing that China is 10 years behind in chipmaking. I just see sanctions as the list of “sure to be taken over” sectors, just a matter of time.